SMART takes the equivalent of 121 cars off the
Hwy101 commute .
Daily Roundtrips mon-frid is 1310(Oct 2018, tho
the weekday average is 1166). (let's generously assume all of the trips are
at peak, 6-9am and 4:30-7:30pm).
APTA says only 42% of Train Rides come from Displaced Single Occupant
Vehicles so its 1310 x 42% = 550 ex-car riders now commuting by train.
The average occupancy of a car on the freeway is 1.4 people so 550 /1.4 =
393 cars. If the average train journey is 12 miles ( out of the 39 miles
from Santa Rosa to San Rafael) then the average effect of SMART at any point
on HWY101 is 393 x 12/39 = 121 cars less during the commute.
One freeway lane transmits 2,400 cars in one peak hour, 3 lanes is 7,200 and
during the 3 hour commute that's 7,200 x 3 = 21,600. So SMART can reduce the
commute by (121 / 21,600) that's 0.55 percent of
cars on the freeway!
4 train loads Northbound and Southbound,
peak hours.
Also there's a maximum of 4 trains leaving
Sonoma southbound that will get passengers to the City before 9am ( via the
Larkspur Ferry). 3 of them you would need to leave between 4.49am and 6am.
The 2-carriages
passenger capacity is 320 people sitting and standing. (450 people in the
three-carriages set, but they only have 3).
So that is a MAXIMUM Peak round-trips of 4 x 320 = 1,280.
And of course they
will come nowhere close to filling 320 seats+standing, even during peak.
If they can come close to the Average weekday Ridership by mile of 27 for
the
Capitol Corridor (San Jose / Oakland/ Sacramento)
(Wordwide FAREBOX RATIOS)
(US Average Loss per
Ride)
Feasibility of SMART PASSING PLACES with
promised TIMETABLE
|
SMART RIDERSHIP Trips:
| |
|
|
|
|
|
JUL17 |
AUG17 |
SEP17 |
OCT17 |
NOV17 |
DEC17 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
37,211 |
17,273 |
65,019 |
57,453 |
56,125 |
56,425 |
|
JAN18 |
FEB18 |
MAR18 |
APR18 |
MAY18 |
JUN18 |
JUL18 |
AUG18 |
SEP18 |
OCT18 |
NOV18 |
DEC18 |
|
56,527 |
54,797 |
57,312 |
56,631 |
59,428 |
61,828 |
63,864 |
72,016 |
62,314 |
65,492 |
52,774 |
51,670 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
JAN19 |
FEB19 |
MAR19 |
APR19 |
MAY19 |
JUN19 |
JUL19 |
AUG19 |
SEP19 |
OCT19 |
NOV19 |
|
|
51,670 |
51,670 |
54,073 |
60,256 |
64,036 |
55,700 |
62,851 |
65,352 |
62,974 |
57,222 |
64,966 |
|
Monthly AVERAGE Sep 2017 thru Nov 2019 ( 27
months): 59,459 trips , 1166 WeekDay Roundtrips
| |
JAN18 |
FEB18 |
MAR18 |
APR18 |
MAY18 |
JUN18 |
JUL18 |
AUG18 |
SEP18 |
OCT18 |
NOV18 |
|
|
Passenger Trips |
51,951 |
50,451 |
51,455 |
51,807 |
59,428 |
61,828 |
63,864 |
72,016 |
62,314 |
65,492 |
52,774 |
|
|
*
Average Daily m-f Trips |
1924 |
2102 |
1906 |
1993 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Daily m-f Roundtrips |
962 |
1051 |
953 |
996 |
|
|
|
|
|
1310 |
|
|
|
Vehicle Revenue Hours |
4,951 |
3,407 |
4.849 |
4,824 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vehicle Revenue Miles |
83,714 |
59,937 |
82,170 |
83,027 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vehicles Operated in
Max Service |
14 |
10 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
taking weekend's daily ridership at half the Ridership of a weekday. (
There's something fishy about February)
source,
DOT: select either “Monthly Module Adjusted Data
Release” or “Monthly Module Raw Data Release,” which are the first two
available files in the list.
51,000 trips per month = 612,000 trips per year. Over 12 years
(2018-2029) = 7,344,000 trips -- with an average ticket price of $7, gives
revenue of $51,408,000.
Projected Farebox Revenue is $61 million. ( It's $9.50 one way from Santa Rosa to San Rafael).
This gives a FAREBOX RATIO of less than 13% --
87% Operating
Expense Subsidy comes from SALES TAX
APRIL 2019
Their TRAIN CONTROL SYSTEM still doesn't work ! A Federal Regulatory
Authority, FRA, spokeswoman said while SMART is not yet PTC-certified it has
“revenue service demonstration (RSD) approval, which means it can test and
run trains with PTC and report to FRA all anomalies, at real time, so that
we can determine whether they can continue with their PTC system in service.
2017 May 24th - Another
TIMETABLE with two 60 minute gaps at MORNING peak and still 90 mins in the
EVENING (still only 4 trains) :) Replacing the one morning gap (having an
extra hour) in the May 17 TIMETABLE with two gaps each having an extra
half-hour.
Now we've got 2 empty trains leaving Sonoma at 4.19 and 4.49
am :)
2017: Still no reference to the SMART
Spokeswoman who said
"SMART
needs more staff and
approval from Federal Railroad
Regulators before it can put more trains into
service". Instead SMART appears to be lying ----
that its solely because of a shortage of Train Drivers when it has 17
engineer-conductors and needs
only 12 Drivers to make the expected DRAFT TIMETABLE
(assuming 8 for the 4 current trains) This apparent lie is being enabled and amplified by the
embarrassed SMART Board itself ! Just ask SMART to make public all
communication with Federal Regulators and see what response you get. ( I
already got no response from a Board Member)
But Tony Withington, a retired international representative for the
Amalgamated Transit Union, asserted that the staffing problems are of
SMART’s own making. He said rather than cross-training bus drivers from
Golden Gate Transit or implementing a new trainee program for engineers,
SMART insisted on hiring only experienced train operators. SMART has
struggled to retain its operators. “He’s having a hell of a time keeping the
employees he has,” Withington said of Mansourian.
Fudge acknowledged that SMART has lost a “few” train engineers because of
the high cost of living in the North Bay. “We’re recruiting again, but it’s
a lot of different complications,” the board chairwoman said. “This is where
we are starting and we intend to beef up our service as soon as we can. I
think that will happen in pretty short order.”
SMART had originally planned to put six trains in service and keep one in
reserve. All 14 of the agency’s engine cars underwent engine replacements
over the past seven months because of a faulty crankshaft design. Fudge said
the engine problems have no bearing on SMART planning to keep more trains in
reserve. “The engine problems have all been solved,” she said.
SMART currently has 17 engineer-conductors who earn
between $51,503 and $83,250 annually. Mansourian is seeking an additional
four engineer positions in next year’s fiscal budget starting July 1, and to
increase top pay scale to $85,051. That salary translates to more than $40
an hour. SMART says it is also "hampered" by
federal railroad regulations
that limit 12 hours to an engineer's work day ( each driver does only 2 runs
SouthNorthSouthNorth. The average shift is 6 hours).
source
Mansourian is saying he told SMART directors on May 17th 2017
that he does not have enough engineers to operate trains on 30-minute
intervals --
but I don't recall him ever saying that in
(the VIDEO
)
Let's take a hypothetical that there ARE not enuf drivers. Then its a fair
assumption that there never were and that they never tested the 2016
TIMETABLE. The only Federal approval they have is for 4 trains and they need
to go thru testing for 6 trains and get subsequent Federal approval before
they can implement.
But how do they do this when they're open for business already? Why !
by testing a weekday schedule on Saturdays and Sundays. And drivers do at
least a 6 day week. And how many Saturdays testing does it take to get
Federal approval? Do you think any Board member has a clue to the
answer to that ? Do you think they should? fubar The can't test with
passengers so the public would need to do without train service for the
whole day.
QUESTION: Why does the train need 33 minutes to turn around at San Rafael
and only 13 at Santa Rosa Airport?
May 17th 2017 - A wait of 1 1/2 hours between train 4&5, 13&14, 21&22 and
30&31 is NOT in the DRAFT SCHEDULE they published 2016. ( also 9&10,
26&27 plus one hour between the last trains 16&17 and 33&34)
All of a sudden there are only 4 train-loads during
peak hours ( leave after 5.45am and arrive before 8.45am) the draft schedule
had 5 1/2 !
SMART in the past also said it would operate seven two-car units along the
route — the sum total of equipment it has on hand. But a SMART spokeswoman
said SMART needs more staff and approval from Federal Railroad Regulators
before it can put more trains into service.
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/7003844-181/smarts-train-schedule-draws-praise?artslide=0
The 90-minute gaps were not in the draft Schedule of
April 2016. That showed trains arriving and departing at 30-minute intervals
across-the-board during peak commute hours.
Farhad Mansourian, the agency’s general manager, presented the updated
schedule to directors at the start of their bi-monthly meeting in Petaluma
Wed, May 17th 2017. He did not offer a direct explanation for why the time
gaps have been introduced.
Mansourian told directors SMART “can’t run every 30 minutes all day and all
afternoon. We don’t have enough equipment and enough engineers.”
SMART had previously said it would operate six two-car trains and keep one
train in reserve.
Now, according to Mansourian, its four trains, with three trains in reserve
!
Mansourian did not respond Thursday and Friday, May 18th, 19th, to several
requests for comment.
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/7007959-181/gaps-in-smart-train-schedule?artslide=0
Misleading everyone, including the SMART Board, with a
fictional DRAFT SCHEDULE !
Mansourian
NEEDS TO BE FIRED OVER THIS !
VIDEO:
I can't believe how Mansourian made no
disclosure of the fact that there are only 4 trains because Federal
Regulators won't allow more.
He starts by exclaiming " an ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT Schedule" ! I've never
heard as big of a SNOW JOB full of BS. And the SMART Board think its a
matter of shifting the schedule right and take 55 minutes waffling over it,
totally oblivious to the fact that there are only 4 trains !
At least 3 of the Board praised
the Schedule - they need to be fired too !
http://sonomamarintrain.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=3&clip_id=363
item 8 |
